Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

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Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings

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In many ways, wide receiver numbers are the most difficult to predict in fantasy football. Limited opportunities, weather, QB injury or just plain old QB ineptitude are just some of the factors that must be taken into consideration when projecting WR performance. That being said, we were very satisfied with our 2007 WR projections finishing with an 83% average. Highlights included a 98% for Chad Johnson, Marques Colston and Larry Fitzgerald, a 97% for Plaxico Burress and Joey Galloway, and a 96% for Terrell Owens, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Santonio Holmes. Looking ahead to 2008 we answer some of the toughest questions fantasy owners will have to answer such as: Can Randy Moss repeat last year's performance? Will the Packers WRs suffer without Brett Favre? Will Marvin Harrison rebound from last year's seasonending knee injury? As always, we will continue to update these rankings and projections throughout the pre-season.

Randy Moss XR: 1 CR: 1 BW: 4 Final 2007 Grade: 52%

2007 Projections: Receptions: 64 ReceivingYDs: 1,022 ReceivingTDs: 8 Fantasy Points: 150

2007 Final Stats: 98 1,493 23 287

2008 Projections: 93 1,422 17 244

2007 Bottom Line: In all of our years of doing this we never missed on any high profile player as badly as we missed on Moss last year. Of course Raider fans now know that Moss had indeed completely quit on their team in 2006.

2008 Outlook: So after getting burned so badly last year what do we do this year? We predict a drop-off. Maybe not the smartest move in the world but we just can't believe that Moss will put up a record number of TDs again this year. There's a variety of reasons for that belief - an improved (we think) Dolphins team, back to back west coast trips in October and again in December, and a Dec.28th contest in weather-challenged Buffalo. Moss will be the first WR off the board, as he should be, just keep those expectations somewhat realistic.

Terrell Owens XR: 2 CR: 3 BW: 10 Final 2007 Grade: 96%

2007 Projections: Receptions: 91 ReceivingYDs: 1,271 ReceivingTDs: 15 Fantasy Points: 217

2007 Final Stats: 81 1,335 15 225

2008 Projections: 88 1,419 16 238

2007 Bottom Line: Last year about this time we said: "Owens is not only the best WR, he's a first round pick." Anyone who drafted him late in the 1st round will tell you we were right.

2008 Outlook: The Cowboys decision not to add another WR means that Owens remains the main cog in their passing game. Despite that, we've seen him ranked as low as 5th, which means he may very well drop into the 2nd round. Our only serious concern about Owens is the fact that he hasn't played 16 games since 2001. but his value is too great to let that scare you off. It also doesn't hurt that his schedule includes games against teams that finished 20th, 21st, 22nd, 24th, 26th, and 28th against the pass in 2007.

Braylon Edwards XR: 3 CR: 7 BW: 5 Final 2007 Grade: 56%

2007 Projections: Receptions: 63 ReceivingYDs: 902 ReceivingTDs: 6 Fantasy Points: 126

2007 Final Stats: 80 1,289 16 225

2008 Projections: 83 1,337 14 218

2007 Bottom Line: The emergence of Derek Anderson allowed Edwards to put up numbers that nobody anticipated. In many ways he was a bigger fantasy surprise than Randy Moss.

2008 Outlook: We expect Edwards to pick up right where he left off, but a difficult schedule will be enough to prevent him from topping last year's fantasy numbers. Our only true concern is the possibility that the Browns could struggle early which could lead to pressure to play Brady Quinn. If that happens Edwards could easily see his numbers drop by as much as 15-20 percent. We'll monitor this situation throughout training camp, but for now Edwards has to be a top 5 WR.

Reggie Wayne XR: 4 CR: 2 BW: 4 Final 2007 Grade: 90%

2007 Projections: Receptions: 92 ReceivingYDs: 1,302 ReceivingTDs: 10 Fantasy Points: 190

2007 Final Stats: 104 1,510 10 211

2008 Projections: 99 1,462 10 206

2007 Bottom Line: With Harrison out of the line-up for most of the season Wayne saw his opportunities increase - and he made the most of it.

2008 Outlook: Many questions still surround Harrison's health (not to mention his possible legal problems) so there's no reason to expect a big drop off from Wayne. Indeed Wayne may well find himself in a perfect situation where Harrison returns and Gonzalez develops to the point where defenses must account for him but not to the point where he cuts significantly into Wayne's numbers. In a perfect world Wayne would find the end zone more often but the Colts offense will continue to spread the scoring chances around.

Larry Fitzgerald XR: 5 CR: 6 BW: 7 Final 2007 Grade: 98%

2007 Projections: Receptions: 93 ReceivingYDs: 1,309 ReceivingTDs: 11 Fantasy Points: 197

2007 Final Stats: 100 1,409 10 201

2008 Projections: 93 1,292 11 195

2007 Bottom Line: Fitzgerald is the picture of consistency as he failed to break the 70yd. receiving mark just two times in 07 while scoring in 6 of the team's last 7 games.

2008 Outlook: If Kurt Warner wins the starting QB job, we look for these numbers to be even higher with Fitzgerald making a run at the #3 fantasy WR spot. Last year Fitzgerald had 1 TD before Warner became the starter and 9 after the Leinart injury - it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that one out. The numbers we have projected for now are based on the alternating QB strategy that HC Ken Whisenhunt used last year.

Marques Colston XR: 6 CR: 10 BW: 9 Final 2007 Grade: 98%

2007 Projections: Receptions: 89 ReceivingYDs: 1,276 ReceivingTDs: 9 Fantasy Points: 182

2007 Final Stats: 98 1,202 11 186

2008 Projections: 96 1,176 12 190

2007 Bottom Line: Going into last year we said we knew there was risk involved in projecting a 2nd year guy to be a top 10 WR, but we had to be intellectually honest about this. Proving once again that honesty is the best policy, Colston finished 8th in the NFL.

2008 Outlook: We look for Colston to improve on last year's overall numbers for a couple of reasons. First, this is his contract season and he knows he's playing for the big payday. Secondly, we don't expect him to be kept out of the end zone 9 times as was the case last year. Despite that, we think you'll be able to get him early in the 3rd round, making him a great value pick.

Brandon Marshall XR: 7 CR: 14 BW: 8 Final 2007 Grade: N/A

2007 Projections: N/A

2007 Final Stats: Receptions: 102 Receiving YDs: 1,325 ReceivingTDs: 7 Fantasy Points: 175

2008 Projections: 98 1,288 10 188

2007 Bottom Line: No excuses, we just didn't think that Marshall was ready to put up those kind of numbers or that Cutler could get him the ball. Obviously, we've changed our opinion.

2008 Outlook: We certainly understand why many of our fantasy football brethern have Marshall ranked considerably lower than we do - just as they did with Colston last year. Here's the deal - Marshall is the primary receiver on a team that is more inclined to pass than they used to be, and has no proven running back. His catches may drop slightly as defenses focus on him but we expect that to be offset by increased red zone production - assuming he stays out of jail and doesn't get suspended.

Plaxico Burress XR: 8 CR: 13 BW: 4 Final 2007 Grade: 97%

2007 Projections: Receptions: 79 ReceivingYDs: 1,204 ReceivingTDs: 10 Fantasy Points: 180

2007 Final Stats: 70 1,025 12 174

2008 Projections: 72 1,088 12 181

2007 Bottom Line: Despite playing on one ankle all season Burress continued to prove (at least to us) why he should be a top 10 fantasy WR.

2008 Outlook: As long as Eli Manning is his QB, Burress will have the occasional game where he completely disappears. Overall however, we still think that he does not get the respect - or the ranking he deserves. He scored in each of the Giants first 7 games before his ankle injury finally got the best of him and slowed down his production. In addition, the Giants face the AFC North this season meaning Burress will get to play against his old team (the Steelers) and defenses like the Bengals and Browns.

Torry Holt XR: 9 CR: 11 BW: 5

2007 Projections: Receptions: 91 ReceivingYDs: 1,273 ReceivingTDs: 9 Fantasy Points: 181

2007 Final Stats: 93 1,189 7 161

2008 Projections: 89 1,167 10 177

2007 Bottom Line: Well, we were certainly right about Holt being over-valued last year. Not only that, the injury parade that was the Rams impacted his scoring opportunities.

2008 Outlook: Don't look now gang, but the world is turned upside down. Over the last couple of years we've been telling you that Holt was over-rated (and we were right) but now he's under-rated. Why? Because people forget just how badly the Rams were beat up last year. Despite that Holt still produced. We've never been in love with the guy but we look for a bounce back season from Marc Bulger with Holt being his primary target. As of now it looks like he will last until late in the 3rd round or even early 4th in most drafts.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh XR: 10 CR: 5 BW: 8 Final 2007 Grade: 96%

2007 Projections: Receptions: 95 ReceivingYDs: 1,134 ReceivingTDs: 11 Fantasy Points: 179

2007 Final Stats: 112 1,143 12 186

2008 Projections: 97 1,096 11 176

2007 Bottom Line: We had Houshmandzadeh ranked higher than most (if not all) other sites last year and it paid big dividends for our members.

2008 Outlook: So last year we were higher on T.J. than everybody and this year we're lower - isn't fantasy football fun? After a player has a big year most people just assume he'll do it again the next year, but that's not always the case. Not that we're saying T.J. won't have a good year - he will - but he won't be the 5th best WR. Want to see some numbers to back that up? Take a look at what he did the second half of last season. Yep, that's a 58yd. per game average with only 2TDs in 8 games. Add to that the Bengals desire to run the ball more this year and you can see why T.J.s ranking is far more likely to go down than up in camp.

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