Fantasy Football Tight Ends

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We'll be the first to admit that our Tight End projections in 2007 were not great. That being said, we've put a lot of effort to improve in that area this year. As always, there are issues that must be resolved in training camp (such as the health of Antonio Gates or how quickly Jeremy Shockey adapts to the Saints offense) but overall there appears to be a decent amount of depth at the position. As with the other positions we'll start with the Top 10 and then add other tiers as camp progresses and some of the lower tier situations become clearer.

Antonio Gates XR: 4 CR: 1 BW: 9 Final 2007 Grade: 99%

2007 Projections: Receptions: 78 ReceivingYDs: 912 ReceivingTDs: 10 Fantasy Points: 151

2007 Final Stats: 75 984 9 152

2008 Projections: 71 898 8 138

2007 Bottom Line: Gates has always had a special place in our hearts after we ranked him as the # 1 TE BEFORE the 2004 season. (Yeah, we're still proud of that one.) Having said that, you can't do much better than miss a guys season total by one point.

2008 Outlook: Here we are 7 months after his surgery and Gatesrecovery is still only at 65-70%. It's not reasonable to expect him to be 100% by the start of the season so we look for a drop-off in his totals. If and when he is healthy we expect him to be a top three TE, but as of now we're more inclined to think his ranking may go down during camp instead of up.

Todd Heap XR: 2 CR: 4 BW: 8

Projections: Receptions: 77 ReceivingYDs: 812 ReceivingTDs: 6

Expectations were high for Heap last year, and for the most part he delivered early in the season but then tailed off considerably only scoring 1 TD over the last 9 games. For a guy who can go up and fight for the ball we were surprised that he finished with only 8 catches in the red zone last year though that is reflective of the team's red zone struggles. With the upgrade at RB we look for there to be a little more open space for Heap to work with this season. Keep in mind however that the Ravens are not a high scoring offense, and as a result Heap's TD numbers have never been high ( 7 is his career high).

Jeremy Shockey XR: 5 CR: 8 BW: 9 Final 2007 Grade: Incomplete

2007 Projections: Receptions: 71 ReceivingYDs: 727 ReceivingTDs: 7 Fantasy Points: 115

2007 Final Stats: Incomplete due to injury.

2008 Projections: 77 911 7 133

2007 Bottom Line: Shockey's greatest contribution to the Giants Super Bowl run was his injury which got his big, selfish mouth out of Eli Manning's ear. (Did we mention that we're not big fans of Shockey?)

2008 Outlook: Like him or not, Shockey is in the perfect situation this year. There are enough offensive threats around him to allow him to take advantage of mismatches, his HC was the OC in New York his rookie year (Shockey's best season), and his QB knows how to find the TE. Our only concern is his sporadic bouts of "Roberto Duran syndrome" (hands of stone) which causes him to drop passes when he's wide open. Still, he will see enough passes to put up very good fantasy numbers this season.

Tony Gonzalez XR: 3 CR: 5 BW: 6 Final 2007 Grade: 76%

2007 Projections: Receptions: 66 ReceivingYDs: 819 ReceivingTDs: 5 Fantasy Points: 107

2007 Final Stats: 99 1,172 5 147

2008 Projections: 95 1,102 5 140

2007 Bottom Line: What can we say? The guy had more receptions than any TE in the league, you can't ask for much more than that.

2008 Outlook: While we missed the number of receptions last year, we were right on with our TD prediction and we see no reason for that to increase this season. The combination of Herm Edwards offensive strategy (does he have one?), a young QB, and a healthy Larry Johnson will all mean that Gonzalez will once again get his catches just not a ton of TDs.

Vernon Davis XR: 6 CR: 9 BW: 9 Final 2007 Grade: 66%

2007 Projections: Receptions: 57 ReceivingYDs: 714 ReceivingTDs: 6 Fantasy Points: 113

2007 Final Stats: 52 509 4 75

2008 Projections: 61 711 6 113

2007 Bottom Line: The Niners offense was even worse than we had expected which resulted in less big plays for Davis than expected.

2008 Outlook: Yeah, we know that new OC Mike Martz has never used the TE much, but he never had a TE like Davis. Despite his struggles last year, Davis has all the physical tools to be a top 10 TE and we expect him to do just that this year. You know Martz is going to throw it, and the offense is WR challenged so some of those passes will come to Davis by default.

Kellen Winslow XR: 2 CR: 4 BW: 5 Final 2007 Grade: 76%

2007 Projections: Receptions: 82 ReceivingYDs: 831 ReceivingTDs: 4 Fantasy Points: 107

2007 Final Stats: 82 1,106 5 140

2008 Projections: 85 1,115 7 143

2007 Bottom Line: We said last year that we wouldn't be at all surprised to see the "Motorcycle Kid" take a run at top three TE numbers, and we were right.

2008 Outlook: The Browns schedule is very difficult and could limit Winslow's numbers, particularly early in the season. Still, there are few TEs in fantasy football with the kind of upside potential as Winslow. Winslow was only held under 50yds. receiving once at home last year (during a blizzard) but struggled on the road failing to hit the 50yd. mark 5 times away from Cleveland. Winslow was also held to only 7 red zone catches last year, a number we expect to increase this season resulting in more TDs.

Alge Crumpler XR: 7 CR: 5 BW: 8

Projections: Receptions: 55 ReceivingYDs: 689 ReceivingTDs: 6

Crumpler's slower than expected recovery time has us a little concerned, but for now he stays here.

If Mike Vick somehow avoids legal problems and starts every game then Crumpler's numbers could be more similar to last years. For some unknown reason Crumpler is the one receiver who Vick can get the ball to on a somewhat consistent basis, but Vick's inconsistency takes it's toll on Crumpler's fantasy value. Last year Crumpler finished with an impressive 8 TDs, but 5 of them came in a 3 week stretch (during that same stretch he also had nearly one-third of his total yards for the season) leaving only 3 TDs to be spread over 13 weeks. For that reason (and the uncertainty surrounding Vick) we can't rank him as a top 5 TE.

Tony Scheffler XR: 10 CR: 7 BW: 8 Final 2007 Grade: 81%

2007 Projections: Receptions: 54 ReceivingYDs: 686 ReceivingTDs: 6 Fantasy Points: 105

2007 Final Stats: 49 549 5 85

2008 Projections: 57 613 6 97

2007 Bottom Line: His ankle injury bothered him all season and was a factor in his failing to reach the numbers we expected.

2008 Outlook: Until we know if WR Brandon Marshall is going to be suspended, it's hard to properly evaluate the Broncos. If Marshall plays, his ability to stretch the field will mean more opportunities for Scheffler underneath. Without Marshall the Broncos WRs are nothing special and space will be harder to come by. If none of the Broncos RBs establish themselves as red zone threats Scheffler could help to fill that role. He only had 7 red zone receptions last year, but 5 of them went for TDs.

Jason Witten XR: 1 CR: 2 BW: 10 Final 2007 Grade: 67%

2007 Projections: Receptions: 68 ReceivingYDs: 802 ReceivingTDs: 4 Fantasy Points: 104

2007 Final Stats: 96 1,145 7 156

2008 Projections: 98 1,188 8 167

2007 Bottom Line: Witten looked almost unstoppable at times last year and finished with 50yds. or more receiving in 12 of his 16 games.

2008 Outlook: We believe that one of the reasons the Cowboys didn't go after another WR in the off-season is because they feel that Witten already fills that role. (They have even experimented with him lining up as a WR.) As long as TO stays healthy, Wittens chances should remain the same or even increase slightly this season. Our only concern is the TD drop-off in the second half of last season (2TDs in the last 8 games) but every TE goes through such streaks.

L.J. Smith XR: 11 CR: 9 BW: 5

Projections: Receptions: 61 ReceivingYDs: 733 ReceivingTDs: 4

Smith is one of those guys that always seems to be on the brink of breaking out, but he never does. After the first two games last year he was considered almost untouchable in many leagues and then went on to finish with less than 50yds. in 10 of the next 14 games. That is not unusual for Smith who has finished below 50yds. receiving in 75% of the games he has played over the last four years. That inconsistency will drive you crazy and it drives his ranking down despite playing on a team that loves to throw the ball.

Chris Cooley XR: 8 CR: 7 BW: 10 Final 2007 Grade: 76%

2007 Projections: Receptions: 49 ReceivingYDs: 667 ReceivingTDs: 5 Fantasy Points: 97

2007 Final Stats: 66 786 8 127

2008 Projections: 64 707 6 113

2007 Bottom Line: Cooley failed to reach 50yds. receiving an incredible 12 of his 16 games, but his overal numbers were saved by a four week stretch in November and early December when he had 89, 96, 89, and 93yds.

2008 Outlook: A new HC, a brutal early schedule, and a QB who is still learning how to play the postion are all factore that we expect Cooley's numbers to drop off slightly this year. It's also worth noting that Cooley played better on the road than at home last year but struggled against NFC East teams averaging just 40yds. per game in those six contests.

Ben Watson XR: 13 CR: 10 BW: 10

Projections: Receptions: 48 ReceivingYDs: 698 ReceivingTDs: 4

Man this guy drives us crazy. Every year there seems to be a reason to expect this to be his break out season, but it just never seems to happen. This year it's the departure of fellow TE Daniel Graham that has people combining Graham's and Watson's numbers together and drooling all over themselves. The only problem with that? It just won't happen. By now you're probably tired of hearing how New England use everybody, but the cold hard facts are that no one on the Patriots has had more than 5 TD catches since 2004. Then there's the arrival of one Randy (throw the ball to me) Moss who's leaping ability makes him a tempting red zone favorite. All of this adds up to another year of "Man, I thought he'd do more than that." for Watson owners.

Owen Daniels XR: 9 CR: 10 BW: 8 Final 2007 Grade: 85%

2007 Projections: Receptions: 46 ReceivingYDs: 511 ReceivingTDs: 5 Fantasy Points: 81

2007 Final Stats: 63 768 3 95

2008 Projections: 68 802 4 104

2007 Bottom Line: Talk to me all you want about the uncertainty at the QB position last year, the cold hard fact is that Daniels didn't score a TD until November 25th.

2008 Outlook: Daniels is clearly an important part of this offense which means he will definitely get his chances but we continue to have red zone concerns. However, it is worth noting that Daniels scored all three of his TDs after WR Andre Johnson returned from his injury. If we are convinced that Johnson is healthy, this ranking could improve in training camp.

Randy McMichael XR: 15 CR: 14 BW: 9

Projections: Receptions: 39 ReceivingYDs: 471 ReceivingTDs: 5

Getting out of Miami was good news for McMichael and his fantasy owners, but despite their passing game - the Rams may not have been the best place for him to land. That's not to say he doesn't have fantasy value, he certainly does but with Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, and Drew Bennett around there's just not that many passes available. (Not to mention RB Steven Jackson.) As a result, McMichael looks like a good bye week option, but nothing more.

Heath Miller XR: 16 CR: 13 BW: 6

Projections: Receptions: 41 ReceivingYDs: 437 ReceivingTDs: 5

Sure there's been lots of talk about getting the TE position more involved in the Steeler passing game - for about 25 years, but it just never seems to happen. While we do expect slightly better numbers for Miller this year we just can't imagine this offense allowing him enough opportunities to really become a fantasy force, or for that matter a fantasy starter.

Desmond Clark XR: 17 CR: 17 BW: 9

Projections: Receptions: 42 ReceivingYDs: 401 ReceivingTDs: 4

Clark was another one of those guys that got off to a great start last year and then fizzled during fantasy crunch time. Consider these yardage totals: 38, 2, 2, 14, 0, 18, 125, 36, 0. That was his November and December - one monster game and everything was garbage. As if that's not bad enough, the Bears went out and drafted a TE (Greg Olsen) in the 1st round. Clark should remain the starter, but Olsen will take some of his catches, and the last thing you need is a part time TE.

Bo Scaife XR: 18 CR: 27 BW: 4

Projections: Receptions: 43 ReceivingYDs: 436 ReceivingTDs: 4

This ranking is a direct result of the ol' "he's got to throw it to somebody" theory. Vince Young has no receivers to get excited about, and he can't run it all the time so Scaife should be a viable option. If that doesn't sound like high praise, that's because it's not. The Titans are going to struggle to score which limits everybody's value - including Scaife. (It is possible that Young and Scaife could develop some type of chemistry in camp, in which case this ranking could improve.)

Dallas Clark XR: 7 CR: 5 BW: 4 Final 2007 Grade: 50%

2007 Projections: Receptions: 42 ReceivingYDs: 401 ReceivingTDs: 4 Fantasy Points: 64

2007 Final Stats: 58 616 11 127

2008 Projections: 55 587 8 107

2007 Bottom Line: Do you really think he would have finished with 11 TDs if Marvin Harrison hadn't been injured?

2008 Outlook: This guy drives us crazy. We know that anybody playing with Peyton Manning has big game potential, but Clark has manged to break 60yds. just 10 times in his career while failing to break 30yds. a mind numbing 36 times. Despite that, his QB makes him a better pick than the guys we have ranked below him.

Eric Johnson XR: 19 CR: 25 BW: 4

Projections: Receptions: 57 ReceivingYDs: 623 ReceivingTDs: 6

As we expected, Johnson (who was the starter in the Hal of Fame game) and Brees have been working well together in red zone drills. Johnson actually intrigues us more than several of the guys we have ranked above him. Should he and Drew Brees hook up in camp then we will be changing our ranking of him significantly. As it is for now though we need to be convinced that he's healthy and that he will be the uncontested starter. Stay tuned, this could be interesting (or at least as interesting as a TE can be).

Leonard Pope XR: 20 CR: 30 BW: 8

Projections: Receptions: 34 ReceivingYDs: 299 ReceivingTDs: 2

Pope failed to live up to expectations last year and now seems to be somewhat undervalued. Is he going to post huge fantasy numbers? No, but he should be the clear starter which is crucial when drafting a back-up. A full training camp to work with Matt Leinart won't hurt either.

Coming Soon: Rankings 11-15