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Fantasy Football Tight Ends Rankings


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Antonio Gates     XR: 1   CR: 1   BW: 7  

Projections:  Receptions: 78   ReceivingYDs: 912   ReceivingTDs: 10

Gates has become a fixture atop the TE rankings, and no one should come close to taking that spot from him this year.  It's true that his TD numbers have dropped over the last three years, but does anybody really believe that Tomlinson is going to put up the TD numbers he did last year?  (You gotta figure at least one of those TDs will find it's way to Gates this year.)  We are a little concerned about all of the coaching changes, but QB Phillip Rivers is no idiot - if he's not sure where to go with the ball, he will look for Gates.  His TD totals are what seperate him from the rest of the crowd, but don't get carried away and take him too soon.

Tight ends used to be the necessary evil on every fantasy team, you only drafted one because you had to.  Then along came Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates and suddenly TEs were fantasy football point producers.  Of course as usual, everybody over-reacted and TEs were taken way too early in many fantasy football drafts last year.  Our advice would be to talk up TEs in the pre-season but don't be in a hurry to draft one.  Let the other teams in your league fall for the hype while you use your early draft picks on more consistent point scorers.  There will be plenty of TE options available to you in the mid-rounds.  Here's how we see the top 10 as of now, we will update these throughout camp.  Complete rankings will be available to our members in July.
Todd Heap     XR: 2   CR: 4   BW: 8  

Projections:  Receptions: 77   ReceivingYDs: 812   ReceivingTDs: 6

Expectations were high for Heap last year, and for the most part he delivered early in the season but then tailed off considerably only scoring 1 TD over the last 9 games.  For a guy who can go up and fight for the ball we were surprised that he finished with only 8 catches in the red zone last year though that is reflective of the team's red zone struggles.  With the upgrade at RB we look for there to be a little more open space for Heap to work with this season.  Keep in mind however that the Ravens are not a high scoring offense, and as a result Heap's TD numbers have never been high ( 7 is his career high).
Jeremy Shockey     XR: 3   CR: 3   BW: 9  

Projections:  Receptions: 71   ReceivingYDs: 727   ReceivingTDs: 7

It's no secret that we have never been big fans of Shockey, but as objective analysts that won't stop us from projecting a solid season for the big jerk. (Sorry, that slipped out.)  Shockey has never reached the lofty heights that were predicted for him but his fantasy numbers have been consistent.  (If he didn't drop so many easy passe he would be ranked ahead of Heap.)  With Tiki Barber now doing morning TV, there are a lot of receptions looking for a home and Shockey and Plaxico Burress should see many of them.  It's also worth remembering that since Eli Manning became the starter he has never finished lower than 4th in the NFL in TD passes, which should mean that 6-8 TDs is a lock for Shockey.
Tony Gonzalez     XR: 4   CR: 2   BW: 8  

Projections:  Receptions: 66   ReceivingYDs: 819   ReceivingTDs: 5

We said last year that the arrival of Herm Edwards meant trouble to all things on the offensive side of the ball, and we don't see any reason to change that opinion this year.  If anything with a new young QB (Brodie Croyle) most likely starting, Edwards may be even more conservative than usual (if that is possible) and there's also our "young QBs like to throw to young WRs" theory working against him.  Should RB Larry Johnson's expected holdout linger into the regular season Gonzalez's numbers could be higher than projected, but we expect the Chiefs to come to terms with Johnson before then.
Vernon Davis     XR: 5   CR: 11   BW: 6  

Projections:  Receptions: 57   ReceivingYDs: 714   ReceivingTDs: 6

OK, we'll admit we're out on a bit of a limb here, but it's a chance worth taking.  Davis and QB Alex Smith began to connect toward the end of last year and we expect that relationship to grow this year.  Not only that, who else is he going to throw to, Ashley Lelie?  Yeah we know they picked up Darrell Jackson but do you really think he won't get hurt?  Another factor to consider is the departure of OC Norv Turner who always gets the most out of his RBs.  If the ground game drops back at all (and we think it will) then Davis should see an increase in his chances.
Kellen Winslow     XR: 6   CR: 10   BW: 7  

Projections:  Receptions: 82   ReceivingYDs: 831   ReceivingTDs: 4

The only two TEs with more 50yd. games than Winslow last year (8) were two guys named Gates and Gonzalez.  That's pretty good company (especially for a guy who plays for the Browns).  Unfortunately for Winslow the Browns QB situation has all the makings of a prolonged train wreck which means that TDs will once again be hard to come by.  The good news is that most early reports are saying that Winslow has rehabbed well from his off-season knee surgery and should be ready for opening day.  If Brady Quinn is able to nail down the starting job in camp (thereby allowing him time to build a rapport with Winslow) we wouldn't be at all surprised to see the "Motorcycle Kid" take a run at top three numbers.
Alge Crumpler    XR: 7   CR: 5   BW: 8  

Projections:  Receptions: 55   ReceivingYDs: 689   ReceivingTDs: 6

If Mike Vick somehow avoids legal problems and starts every game then Crumpler's numbers could be more similar to last years.  For some unknown reason Crumpler is the one receiver who Vick can get the ball to on a somewhat consistent basis, but Vick's inconsistency takes it's toll on Crumpler's fantasy value.  Last year Crumpler finished with an impressive 8 TDs, but 5 of them came in a 3 week stretch (during that same stretch he also had nearly one-third of his total yards for the season)  leaving only 3 TDs to be spread over 13 weeks.  For that reason (and the uncertainty surrounding Vick) we can't rank him as a top 5 TE.
Tony Scheffler    XR: 8   CR: 21   BW: 6  

Projections:  Receptions: 54   ReceivingYDs: 686   ReceivingTDs: 6

Scheffler is the latest example of a young QB throwing the ball to a young receiver - we're not sure why it happens (though of course we have theories), but there's no denying that it does.  Consider these numbers:  In eight games with Jake Plummer,  Scheffler managed all of 67yds. and 0 TDs but in 5 games with Jay Cutler he piled up 219yds. and 4 TDs.  While some may point to the addition of Daniel Graham as a reason not to expect big things from Scheffler, we expect Graham to be used far more as a blocking TEthan as a receiver leaving most of the TE passes and fantasy points for Scheffler.
Jason Witten    XR: 9   CR: 8   BW: 6  

Projections:  Receptions: 68   ReceivingYDs: 802   ReceivingTDs: 4

Quick, how many TDs did Witten have last year?  (No fair looking it up.)  Yep, that's right - just one.  How about this stat, Witten had only 4 red zone receptions for the entire season.  Why?  Well the emergence of Marion Barber as a red zone force seriously impacted how the Cowboys used (or didn't use) Witten down close, and then there's the T.O. factor.  Believe it or not, Witten actually fared better than most TEs have with Owens in the line-up.  (Always remember, there's only so many passes to go around.)  Having said that, Witten's numbers (like Owens) improved after Romo took over as the starter and he once again became a consistent yardage producer.  That should continue in 07 and a few more TDs seem likely.
L.J. Smith    XR: 10   CR: 9   BW: 5  

Projections:  Receptions: 61   ReceivingYDs: 733   ReceivingTDs: 4

Smith is one of those guys that always seems to be on the brink of breaking out, but he never does.  After the first two games last year he was considered almost untouchable in many leagues and then went on to finish with less than 50yds. in 10 of the next 14 games.  That is not unusual for Smith who has finished below 50yds. receiving in 75% of the games he has played over the last four years.  That inconsistency will drive you crazy and it drives his ranking down despite playing on a team that loves to throw the ball.