Fantasy Football Quarterbacks

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Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings

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Peyton Manning XR: 1 CR: 1 BW: 6

2007 Projections: PassingYds: 4,458 PassingTDs: 33 INTs: 11 RushingYds: 33 Rushing TDs: 1

What did you expect? Manning is simply the most consistent point scorer among fantasy football QBs year in and year out. Last year he only failed to reach 200yds. in two games and only failed to throw a TD pass in one game. That kind of consistency guarantees that you will be competitive every week with Manning as your QB. With Dominic Rhodes now in Oakland we look for some of his carries from last year to become short passes this year which means even more opportunities for Manning. The addition of Anthony Gonzalez is an upgrade from the perpetually injured Brandon Stokley and teamed with Harrison and Wayne gives Manning plenty of talent to throw to.

For years we've heard the theories about how QBs aren't important enough in fantasy football to draft in the 1st round. So does that mean that all of you who drafted LaMont Jordan ahead of Peyton Manning in 2006 are planning on doing it again this year? Didn't think so. Actually, we expect that by the time draft day rolls around we'll have 2 and quite possibly 3 QBs rated as 1st round picks in a 12 team league. Obviously there's still a lot to be decided in training camps, but here's how we see the top 15 as of now. (More rankings will follow in the weeks leading up to camp, with complete rankings available to our members beginning in July.)

Quarterbacks Running Backs Wide Receivers Tight Ends Kickers Defenses

Drew Brees XR: 2 CR: 5 BW: 4

2007 Projections: PassingYds: 4,476 PassingTDs: 30 INTs: 13 RushingYds: 28

There are several reasons we expect Brees to excel again this year, not the least of which is the Saints schedule. (We rate it as the easiest in the NFL.) In addition to that, the drafting of RB Antonio Pittman to spell Deuce McAllister tells us that Reggie Bush will continue to be used more in the passing game than the running game which translates into a lot of "easy" yards for Brees. Last (but not least), the aggressive play calling of HC Sean Payton means this offense will remain wide open. The only truly negative stat for Brees last year was his 6 games with under 200yds. passing. With the schedule as it is (did we mention it's EASY), we look for him to cut that number in half this season.

Carson Palmer XR: 3 CR: 2 BW: 5

2007 Projections: PassingYds: 4,011 PassingTDs: 28 INTs: 15 RushingYds: 27

Yeah we know our projection totals say Bulger is # 3, but Palmer's weekly consistency makes him a better pick. (Bulger may very well end up with better totals but he will do it in streaks.) Palmer had more multiple TD games (10) than any other QB in the NFL for the second consecutive season last year and we see no reason to expect a big drop off this year. Our only concern is the status of WR Chris Henry. As bad as Henry is off the field, he's that good on it and the Bengals offense just wasn't the same without him last year. While we love Palmer's consistency, we'd like to see more 300yd. games from a player of his caliber. (He only had 5 over the last two years, far less than Manning's 10 and Bulger's 12.)

Tom Brady XR: 4 CR: 3 BW: 10

2007 Projections: PassingYds: 3,872 PassingTDs: 29 INTs: 14 RushingYds: 87

Speaking of consistency, Brady has been remarkable over the last five years. Over that time he has had between 23 and 28TDs every season while throwing 12-14 INTs. Last year's passing yardage of 3,529 was actually the lowest he has had while starting for a complete season. While we're not as excited as others seem to be about the addition of Randy Moss, there's no doubt the WRs as a group are much improved from last year. (Of course improving from Reche Caldwell isn't difficult.) Brady actually finished the 06 regular season with a whimper, averaging only 165yds. and 1TD per game over the last 4 weeks, but we don't expect that to happen again this year.

Marc Bulger XR: 5 CR: 4 BW: 9

2007 Projections: PassingYds: 4,271 PassingTDs: 25 INTs: 13 RushingYds: 38

So you want to know why we have Palmer and Brady ahead of Bulger? Well, take a look at these mind boggling numbers: September - 2TDs, October - 10TDs, November - 2TDs, December - 10TDs. Still not convinced? How about this: In 8 games at the Edward Jones Dome he threw 17TDs, but on the road he only threw 7. Want more? He only threw 3TD passes over 19yds., while the four guys ranked above him averaged over 10. Off-season acquisitions Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael will help, but we have concerns about Bruce's age, and Holt's knee. Bulger did tie with Brees for the most 300yd. games (8) and was only held under 200yds. three times, so the potential is there for him to finish as a top 3 QB if he can avoid those 2TD months.

Tony Romo XR: 6 CR: 12 BW: 8

2007 Projections: PassingYds: 3,797 PassingTDs: 27 INTs: 17 RushingYds: 123

All Romo did in the games he started last year was average over 260yds. per game (only Manning, Brees, and Bulger did better). Word out of Dallas is that he has been the hardest worker on the team in the off-season and that he seems very comfortable in the new offensive scheme. The fact that Bill Parcells is gone should also help Romo's confidence level since he won't have Parcells beating him up on a weekly basis. Still, take out the 5TD game vs. the Bucs and Romo's numbers for 2006 were a less than thrilling 14TDs vs. 13INTs so let's not reserve him a spot in Canton just yet, but with the WRs he has to throw to and the overall more aggressive attitude of the new coaching staff there's no reason not to expect Romo to put up very good fantasy numbers in 2007.

Donovan McNabb XR: 7 CR: 6 BW: 5

2007 Projections: PassingYds: 3,449 PassingTDs: 26 INTs: 13 RushingYds: 267 Rushing TDs: 3

It's hard to argue with 19 total TDs and only 5INTs in 8 games, but argue we will. Why? Well for starters there's the fact that McNabb has only played 16 games once since 2001 which means if you take him you must use another high pick on a good back-up. Then consider this, while playing on a team that passes at least 60% of the time, the only time McNabb threw for more than 3,400yds. was the year he had T.O. Finally, is anybody really all that excited about the Eagles WRs? Don't get us wrong, McNabb will be a very solid fantasy QB. HC Andy Reid loves to throw, and RB Brian Westbrook will get McNabb a lot of easy yards on screens. Just be prepared for the inevitable injury.

Brett Favre XR: 9 CR: 15 BW: 7

2007 Projections: PassingYds: 3,779 PassingTDs: 23 INTs: 18 RushingYds: 33

Yes, we know he's old, and yes we've grown tired of his annual "please beg me to play" routine, but the simple fact is that he finished 6th in passing yards last year despite the fact that his favorite WR was injured for much of the season. His penchant for throwing a complete dud (5 games without a TD pass) will kill you on certain weeks but the state of the Packer running game should mean more TD passes this season. Of course the INTs will pile up again this year so if your league has a heavy penalty for picks you will definitely want to drop him out of the top 10. So while we're not thrilled about Favre, for now we think he beats any of the other QBs still on the board at this point but we will be watching training camp very closely.

Eli Manning XR: 10 CR: 14 BW: 9

2007 Projections: PassingYds: 3,527 PassingTDs: 25 INTs: 19 RushingYds: 21

Eli is not his brother Peyton, but who is? Yes he makes some bad decisions and yes he still gets that "deer in the headlights" look, but the numbers say that only three QBs in the NFL threw more TDs passes in 2006 (as well as 2005). Add it all up and you end up with only 4 QBs with more TD passes over the last two seasons combined. It's also significant that only Peyton threw TD passes in more games (15) than Eli (14) did last year. With the retirement of Tiki Barber we look for slightly more passing from the Giants than in the past so Eli should once again finish in the top 5 in TD passes. With nine games below 200yds. he's hardly a fantasy stud, but we do expect him to cut that number to 6 such games this season which will make him a top 10 fantasy QB.

Matt Hasselbeck XR: 11 CR: 12 BW: 8

2007 Projections: PassingYds: 3,456 PassingTDs: 21 INTs: 12 RushingYds: 12

Other than in 2003 Hasselbeck has never surpassed the 3,500yd. or 25TD plateus, and we don't look for him to reach either of those numbers this year. It would be easy to blame his 06 performance on injuries, and there is no doubting that they were a factor but Hasselbeck has always been at his best when he was managing a game, not taking it over. (Which means he is a better NFL QB than a fantasy QB.) His career averages of 3,037yds. and 19TDs just aren't fantasy stud material. With Shaun Alexander healthy again the offense will have more scoring opportunities, but there's no doubt that some of Hasselbeck's 11 red zone TD passes will be Alexander runs this year. He will be a good 2nd tier fantasy QB, but don't expect him to carry you.

Matt Leinart XR: 12 CR: 13 BW: 8

2007 Projections: PassingYds: 3,413 PassingTDs: 22 INTs: 17 RushingYds: 81 Rushing TDs: 1

Obviously there is risk in ranking a 2nd year QB this highly, but few 2nd year QBs have Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin to throw to. Keep in mind that after becoming the starter Leinart averaged more passing yards per game than the likes of Matt Hasselbeck, Eli Manning, and Chad Pennington while throwing for at least one TD in 8 of his 11 starts. New HC Ken Whisenhunt put a young QB (Ben Roethlisberger) in position to succeed in Pittsburgh, and we look for him to do the same with Leinart. We also look for the ground game to be better this year (it couldn't get much worse), which should open up more play action possibilities as well as forcing defenses to respect the run in the red zone which will allow more quick TD passes to his WRs.

Jon Kitna XR: 8 CR: 7 BW: 6

2007 Projections: PassingYds: 4,059 PassingTDs: 22 INTs: 20 RushingYds: 113

We knew heading into camp that this ranking could change, but we didn't expect it to happen so soon. However, we don't make this change without concerns. To begin with, Kitna is about as mobile as Jimmy Johnson's hair and the Lions offensive line allowed an eye popping 63 sacks last year - so durability could be an issue. (Especially since OC Mike Martz has never concerned himself with protecting his QBs.) Secondly, Kitna is streaky and his TDs tend to come in bunches. Thirdly, he has always shown an ability to do well when no one was expecting much but has struggled when expectations were high. Despite all of that we have to put him here because of the Martz throw, throw, throw system and the talent of his WRs, but we're not thrilled about it.

Ben Roethlisberger XR: 13 CR: 13 BW: 6

2007 Projections: PassingYds: 3,522 PassingTDs: 20 INTs: 18 RushingYds: 101 Rushing Tds: 1

With the departure of HC Bill Cowher and OC Ken Whisenhunt (and assuming he can avoid hospitals between now and the regular season) we expect Roethlisberger to want to make this "his" team. As a result of that, we look for him to have career best numbers in passing yardage and passing TDs, though we don't look for those numbers to translate into a lot of wins. As many of you know we believed the Steelers rushed Roethlisberger's return last year and it clearly affected the way he played. Once he began to feel a little more comfortable (beginning 10/15) he threw at least 1 TD pass in 11 of 12 games. Roethlisberger has always taken chances and benefitted from a lot of dropped INTs his first two years, but that caught up with him in 06.

Phillip Rivers XR: 14 CR: 14 BW: 7

2007 Projections: PassingYds: 3,477 PassingTDs: 22 INTs: 14 RushingYds: 44

Rivers is destined to always be known as "the guy who handed the ball to LaDanian Tomlinson" and will never post huge numbers as long as LT is healthy. So why do we have him ranked here? For the same reason. Teams are so focused on stopping Tomlinson that Rivers can throw a TD pass once a week by accident. (He threw TD passes in 13 of 16 games last year.) Of course it also doesn't hurt to be able to throw the ball to LT as well, not to mention Antonio Gates in the red zone. Interestingly Rivers threw 14 TDs on the road (with only 4INTs) but only 8TDs (5INTs) at home which is most likely a reflection of the team's committment to allowing LT to entertain the locals. Little known stat to remember: Rivers threw 0INTs in the red zone last season.

Vince Young XR: 15 CR: 8 BW: 4

2007 Projections: PassingYds: 2,776 PassingTDs: 16 INTs: 18 RushingYds: 589 RushingTDs: 6

Is Young talented? Obviously. Is he exciting? You bet. Do I want him as my fantasy starter? No way. Yeah we know we're pretty much on our own on this one, but we're not worried. We're talking about a guy who failed to throw for 100yds. 3 painful times last year while managing to throw for over 200yds. just 4 times (and never hit 250yds.). Before you start talking about him improving in that department this year keep in mind that the team's leading WR (Drew Bennett) is now in St. Louis. Take a look at the WRs he has left and tell me how good the Titan passing game will be. Yes he will run the ball, and there will be weeks where he puts up fantasy points, (which is why he's ranked here) but on a weekly basis he is as likely to drive you crazy as he is to lead you to victory.

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