Fantasy Football Defenses

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COMING SOON: 2008 DEFENSES

Quarterbacks Running Backs Wide Receivers Tight Ends Kickers Defenses

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

To 4-3 or not to 4-3, that is the question. Well, you get the idea. After considering scrapping the 3-4, HC Mike Tomlin now appears willing to let DC Dick LaBeau continue to run the defense in Pittsburgh so we don't look for any significant changes. They may occasionally throw in some different looks but overall the scheme will remain an aggressive one. The decision to let LB Joey Porter (Which raised a hue and cry in the Steel City) seems like a good move to us. For much of the past two seasons Porter has done a lot more talking about making plays than actually making them, so he should not be missed. You would be hard pressed to find a defense with a more favorable opening schedule (@ Browns and then home vs. the Bills and Niners) but Fantasy crunch time (Weeks 13 -17) will be challenging.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Despite the loss of OLB Adalius Thomas we do not expect a significant drop-off for this top notch unit. The Ravens simply intimidate people and rarely if ever get blown out ( 26pts. was the most they allowed last year). Playing these guys when they're at home is about as safe as it gets. Last year they only allowed an average of 12 points per game at home while snagging 14 INTs. While the home schedule is more difficult this year (including the Colts and the Patriots), it is offset by a road schedule that includes the Browns, Bills, and Dolphins. Return man B.J. Sams failed to return a kick for a TD last year but he did have a 65yd. punt return and a 72yd. KO return - so the potential is still there. We also believe the addition of Willis McGahee is an upgrade for the Ravens running game which should mean more time of possession and an even more rested and aggressive defense.

CHICAGO BEARS

The Bears schedule is hardly brutal, but it is tougher than last year so don't expect quite the same defensive domination. The loss of Tank Johnson to sheer stupidity leaves this unit vulnerable to the run - something they struggled with at times last year. (They played Dominic Rhodes right into a fat free agent contract.) Still their aggressive style results in turnovers, and that of course is what it's all about in fantasy football. Return man Devin Hester had a year for the ages last season, but it would be unrealistic to expect him to repeat that performance again in 07. The plans to involve him in the offense sure sound interesting, but if it happens he will definitely see a drop off in his return numbers. (If you don't believe us, ask Dante Hall.) After a tough start to the season, Weeks 4 through 10 look like fantasy gold with lots of turnovers and sacks, and the schedule is favorable during the Fantasy Super Bowl weeks (Redskins, Vikings, and Packers in Weeks 14, 15, and 16).

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The Patriots defense didn't get a lot of attention last year but they quietly put together a very solid performance. (Except for that 2nd half melt down in the AFC Championship.) HC Bill Belichick knows how to put people in the right position to make plays, and with the acquisition of OLB Adalius Thomas he has another very talented player to work with. There are challenges to overcome, like road games in Cincy, Dallas, and Indy as well as an unhappy CB (Asante Samuel) but look for the Patriots to once again be one of the better turnover producing defenses. The return game (which was not a particular area of strength) will need to find someone to take the place of Laurence Maroney on kick-offs if they are to make a significant contribution.

DALLAS COWBOYS

HC Wade Phillips built an aggressive defense in San Diego, and he's got a lot of the pieces in place to repeat that in Dallas. Last year the Cowboys defense was predicated on stopping big plays (which they failed at) rather than attacking the offense. With Phillips look for DeMarcus Ware to be used far less in pass coverage and far more in pass rushing. The addition of Anthony Spencer should also help give them the pass rush they often lacked last year. We still expect them to be vulnerable to the occasional big play, but that shouldn't hurt their fantasy value. We look for increases in all the major fantasy categories, sacks, turnovers, and points scored. Return man Miles Austin made an impression last year and could easily be the surprise special team story of the year.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

It's hard to complain about the Chargers defensive performance last year from a fantasy perspective, but a five week stretch from 10/22 to 11/19 (when they allowed almost 30pts. per game) certainly does give us something to at least consider. We also wonder just how much impact the departure of DC Wade Phillips will have as well as the change at the top from Schottenheimer to Turner. Still, there's a lot of reasons to like this defense and we certainly expect them to be a strong fantasy unit (though we look for a slight drop-off from last year). Of course this defense begins with Shawne Merriman who recorded a ridiculous 17 sacks in just 12 games last year due to his steroid suspension. After the suspension he played with a vengeance, recording 8.5 sacks in the month of December alone. If he brings that attitude and stays out of trouble this unit could easily challenge for the top spot.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

There's no place like home, especially for the Jaguars. As we pointed out in our divisional analysis the Jaguars finished 6-2 at home allowing just 11 points per game, but were 2-6 on the road surrendering over 23 points per game. While it might be tempting to write that off as a fluke, keep in mind that in 2005 they allowed 14pts. at home and over 22pts. on the road. Perhaps even more amazing was the 14INTs at home vs. just 6 on the road. Notice a pattern here? The home schedule this year includes the Chargers and the Colts, but also has the likes of Houston, Buffalo, and Oakland so look for more of the same this year. The biggest disappointment for the Jaguars defense last year was their low sack total of 35 (only 13 teams were worse) an area that must be addressed in camp.

NEW YORK JETS

The Jets defense was adequate last year, but not nearly what HC Eric Mangini had in mind when he came here from New England. To address that the team traded up in both the 1st and 2nd rounds of the draft to get impact players. First round pick CB Darrelle Revis should see considerable playing time from day one, as should 2nd round pick ILB David Harris. With the addition of Thomas Jones, there is hope that the Jets will be able to run the ball better which would translate into more time of possession and less time on the field for the defense. The special teams play definitely upgrades this unit's fantasy ranking with Pro Bowler Justin Miller returning kick-offs and rookie CB Darrelle Reevis possibly adding some fresh legs to the punt return unit. Like New England this team works well as a unit and Mangini and his coaching staff are good at putting players in position to succeed.

CAROLINA PANTHERS

So much talent, so few results. The Panthers were a consensus top 3 fantasy defense last year in pre-season, but they sure didn't play like it once the season started. While the passing defense finished ranked 4th overall, and the rushing defense was a solid 11th, only three teams had fewer take aways than the pathetic 22 the Panthers put up. With that said, the Panthers defense remains a very solid fantasy unit but they have yet to prove they belong in the same tier as Baltimore and Chicago. We also expect RB DeAngelo Williams to be used less in the return game which also lowers their value.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

If the rest of this team delivered like the defensive line, they would be play-off contenders. They simply shut down team's running games, allowing a paltry 61yds. per game and 2.8yds. per carry. There were times when teams simply stopped trying to run against them and threw on almost every down which resulted in the secondary allowing the most passing yards in the NFL, but they still only gave up 15 passing TDs (4th best in the NFL). The departure of Mike Tomlin raises some concerns but the bigger issue may very well be the inability of the offense to move the ball and the liklihood of QB Travaris Jackson turning it over. This may very well create a lot of short fields for the opposition offenses resulting in short, stat killing TD drives. If your league doesn't penalize for yardage the secondary will be worth drafting since they're bound to see more than their fair share of passes which should result in decent INT numbers.

TAMPA BAY BUCS

After a year that saw this defense struggle (they allowed the second highest QB rating in franchise history), the front office made several off-season moves to restore some dignity. Of course the big signng was LB Cato June who's speed and pass coverage skills instantly upgraded a fading linebacker corps. First round pick Gaines Adams is expected to step in and start immediately and should help with the pass rush which was non-existent last year (only the Redskins with 19 had fewer sacks than the Bucs 25). With Jeff Garcia now starting at QB we look for the offense to spend more time on the field which will of course help to keep the defense fresh. The last factor to consider is the schedule which features difficult match-ups early on but gets much easier after Week 4 and concludes with a very favorable final four weeks.

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Due to the absolute ineptitude of the offense last year this unit did not get the credit they deserved (they gave up the fewest passing yards in the league). As always there were several factors at work there (weakness vs. the run, teams with leads not passing, etc.) but you also have to keep in mind that teams were often handed great field position against them. The off-season signing of S Donovin Darius gives the secondary an instant jolt and enables DC Rob Ryan to move last year's rookie phenom Michael Huff to FS. Of course in fantasy football it's all about sacks and turnovers, areas the Raiders were not particularly strong in 2006. However their schedule this year features an amazing 11 games against QBs with less than 2 years starting experience in the NFL which should lead to improvement in both areas.

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Here's some easy money for you - make a water cooler bet on the top four defenses in sacks in the NFL in 2006, and then collect your winnings because very few people realize that the Packers were 4th in total sacks and third in sack yards. Want a couple more surprises? Only Baltimore and Chicago had more INTs than the Pack and only the Ravens had a better completion percentage rate. Now, toss in the fact that get two games each vs. the Vikings, Bears, and Lions as well as single games vs. Redskins, Chiefs, and Raiders and you can see why we expect them to once again be in the top five in INTs and sacks. It also doesn't hurt that three of their last four games will be played in potentially bad weather sites which also increases the probability of turnovers. The biggest drawback is their less than impressive return game, an area they will need to address in camp.

DENVER BRONCOS

It's never a bad thing to draft a defense that has Champ Bailey. Bailey intercepted 10 passes last year (including 6 inside the Broncos 4yd. line) despite teams only throwing to his side about 40 times for the entire season. The off-season acquisition of Dre' Bly was a good move, but Bly should never be confused with a true shut down corner. Like last year we expect the Broncos defense to start out hot with games vs. the Bills, Raiders, and Jaguars in the first three weeks before things grow considerably more difficult in the middle part of the season. However, 3 of the last 5 games of the season are against offensively challenged teams (Raiders - Wk.13, Texans - Wk.15, Vikings - Wk.17) so we don't look for them to fade as badly as they did last year.

MIAMI DOLPHINS

The expected improvement of the offense with QB Trent Green should allow the defense to put up better numbers this year as well. Of course it wouldn't take much to improve on their pathetic 8INTs last year which was the second worst in the NFL. The saving grace for them in 06 was their sack total of 47 (which was 3rd best in the league) and it could very well be their strength again this season with the addition of blitz specialist LB Joey Porter. (If he's not too busy talking.) If the secondary doesn't make strides in camp, then turnovers will once again be hard to come by and we will re-visit this ranking. (There's no waywe feel comfortable expecting a defense to once again recover 19 fumbles.) The first 6 weeks of the season look favorable with only a Week 2 game vs. Dallas presenting an offensive challenge while weeks 4, 5, and 6 feature the Raiders, Texans, and Browns.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

The Eagles schedule is certainly favorable for early season turnovers with their first true test not coming until Week 9 vs. the Cowboys. Their blitzing stlye usually lands them in the top 10 in both INTs and Sacks but year after year they struggle against the run. As a result, if your league doesn't penalize for yards surrendered or TDs allowed then we would recommend ranking them a few notches higher. However, keep in mind that they pay for their soft early schedule with a brutal stretch in Weeks 12 through 16, which of course is fantasy football play-off time. Additionally their special teams play were anything but as they finished 28th in KO returns in 2006.

CINCINNATTI BENGALS

If your league's scoring system penalizes you for yardage allowed by a defense, stop reading this right now. Nobody gave up more passing yards than the Bengals did last year and there's no reason to expect a huge turn around this season (though the addition of rookie CB Leon Hall should help). The Bengals fantasy value comes from the fact that their offense scores so many points that teams have to throw more often to keep up and as a result the Bengals D has plenty of chances for sacks and turnovers. That has added up to a fantasy friendly total of 75 turnovers and 63 sacks over the last two seasons. The schedule certainly offers up plenty of fantasy opportunity especially in fantasy football crunch time when the face less than overwhelming offenses in Weeks 15 through 17 (Niners, Browns and Dolphins).

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

After allowing teams to run over, through, and around them all season the Colts defense suddenly came to life in the post season. Will that carry over into this year? Nah. To begin with the loss of Cato June, Nick Harper, and Jason David leaves 202 tackles and 10 turnovers looking for a new home. Secondly, they haven't upgraded the defensive line (they were the first team in NFL history to allow 173yds. rushing per game and make the play-offs). As with the Bengals the value here is in the number of opportunities for sacks and INTs as teams try to catch up with the offense.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The only reason this unit is here is their ability to get sacks consistently, piling up an impressive 91 over the last two seasons. The off-season signing of DE Patrick Kerney should help to keep that an area of strength. Beyond that they have been a run of the mill defense that last year gave up a lot of big plays which was evidenced in their draft strategy this year (taking defensive players with their first three picks). Still, it's hard for us to imagine that they will turn this thing around in one year. It's also worth noting that 4 of their last 6 games are on the road.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

While the Saints may have finished 11th overall on defense and 3rd against the pass, the bottom line is that they were not a dominant unit. Only the hapless Redskins 12 turnovers was lower than the Saints painful total of 19 (including only 11 INTs), and their kick return units failed to score a TD despite the presence of Reggie Bush. On the upside, the sack total of 38 was acceptable and they did add a few players in the off-season (such as CB Jason David and S Kevin Kaesviharn) that could help improve the turnover numbers.